Will the UDF win in Kerala bolster or break INDIA Bloc?

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) win in Kerala on Monday provided the lone bright spot for the Opposition INDIA bloc in the 2026 election dashboard, otherwise coloured saffron. Even as the Congress was rejected by voters in Assam and so were its alliances with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, the grand old party managed to add one more state to its limited list of state governments, which includes Himachal Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.

Beyond deciding who will helm the new government in Kerala, the party’s improved performance in Kerala may have multiple implications at the national level—it could either strengthen its position within the INDIA alliance, where the DMK and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) are key players. The results, however, also have the potential to shatter the fragile cohesiveness between alliance partners observed during the recent special session of Parliament, especially when the TMC and the Congress were rivals in West Bengal, and so were the Congress and the Left parties in Kerala.

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Today’s results from Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have dented the standing of the TMC and the DMK within the bloc, potentially reshaping internal equations. Whether this leads to a stronger alliance or further discord will only become clear over time, possibly stretching to the next general elections in 2029.

In the immediate term, however, the Congress must also decide on its next chief minister in Kerala. Leading contenders include senior state leaders VD Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala, along with AICC general secretary KC Venugopal. There is also an added dimension with Shashi Tharoor in the discussion, adding to the Congress’ issues.

While Venugopal and Tharoor did not contest the Assembly elections, both Chennithala and Satheesan did. This makes the current situation somewhat distinct, as the contenders are not limited to state-level leaders.

Venugopal is a key member of the Congress high command, as is Tharoor. In the past, when similar situations arose, the Congress was in power at the Centre and could accommodate senior leaders accordingly. For instance, when veteran leader K Karunakaran made way for AK Antony as chief minister, he was offered a Cabinet position at the Centre. Similarly, when Antony stepped down to pave the way for Oommen Chandy, he was given a prominent role in the UPA government.

The present scenario is different. The Congress has no such leverage at the Centre, making the contest for the Kerala chief minister’s post particularly significant.

In that sense, the party faces a challenging task. Unlike the BJP, where the central leadership can impose choices, as seen with Mohan Yadav in Madhya Pradesh, Bhajan Lal Sharma in Rajasthan, or Samrat Chaudhary in Bihar, the Congress must navigate internal dynamics more carefully. It is still grappling with unresolved leadership tensions in states like Karnataka between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar.

Chennithala was the Congress’s chief ministerial face in 2021, when the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF retained power. Venugopal, a Lok Sabha member from Alappuzha, has declined to denounce a social media campaign by supporters projecting him as a potential CM. Several Congress MLA candidates have also backed him. Meanwhile, Satheesan’s camp, too, is projecting him as the next Kerala chief minister.

However, according to sources, despite competing claims, the Kerala unit will face no such issue, “The high command has the situation completely under control.”